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Work · Guided lesson

Forecast the finish

About 20 minutes · 4 reading + 16 practice and checks
Time includes reading, practice, and questions. Extra videos or further study are optional.
See this course’s project requirements

A reconciled project cost sheet showing baseline, incurred costs, open commitments, forecast to finish, and a supported change recommendation.

Keep your working files in your own notebook or software. Save a private description, checklist, and work link in My Proof.

What to include

  • An approved-scope baseline with checked quantities and costs.
  • A cost register with three non-overlapping categories.
  • A price-variance note with invoice and full-project effects.
  • A forecast-to-finish sheet and two-cause variance explanation.
  • A scope-change request separating incremental work and existing variance.
  • A final reconciled cost-control packet with versions, causes and next decision.

Review and revise

Use these criteria to check your work and choose what to improve.

  • Every required section is present and traceable to the supplied case facts.
  • Decisions separate known facts, assumptions, and unresolved questions.
  • Records, calculations, and instructions agree with each other and the stated rules.
  • The final revision addresses a changed case and explains what someone should do next.
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Before you begin

The idea in everyday life

Baseline B1 $800. Updated incurred costs: materials $198 and assembly $160 = $358. Open commitments: remaining materials $132 and delivery $100 = $232. New evidence says uncommitted assembly remaining will cost $300, replacing the earlier $240 estimate. Scope remains 100 kits.

The idea

A low current total does not prove that unfinished work is affordable.

Follow along

Forecast the finish — guided practice

Explain why low spending to date can hide an overrun.

Use a text editor, a free document editor, or paper. Start from the following fictional records; they reset this lesson even if your earlier answer differed. Baseline B1 $800. Updated incurred costs: materials $198 and assembly $160 = $358. Open commitments: remaining materials $132 and delivery $100 = $232. New evidence says uncommitted assembly remaining will cost $300, replacing the earlier $240 estimate. Scope remains 100 kits.

  1. 1. Keep actuals fixed

    Record the $358 generated to date.

    You should see: $358 incurred.

    Changing a forecast should not rewrite historical facts.

  2. 2. Update remaining estimate

    Replace $240 with $300, without adding both.

    You should see: $300 future uncommitted assembly.

    An updated estimate replaces its previous version.

  3. 3. Calculate final forecast

    Add incurred, open commitments and other remaining.

    You should see: 358 + 232 + 300 = $890.

    The final estimate includes unfinished obligations.

  4. 4. Explain the variance

    Compare $890 with $800 and identify causes.

    You should see: $90 over baseline: $30 materials price + $60 assembly estimate.

    A causal bridge makes the total useful for decisions.

Now change one thing

Remaining assembly estimate falls to $270; incurred $358 and open commitments $232 stay unchanged. Enter revised forecast.

Your work

What to finish

A forecast-to-finish sheet and two-cause variance explanation.

Common mistake

Watch for this

Reporting “under budget” from spending to date while ignoring unfinished work.

How can I tell I understand it?

Check your result against the worked example, then explain the changed case without using an unstated assumption.

Try 3 questions

Quick knowledge check

Answer all 3 questions. Get at least 2 right and the lesson completes automatically.

Not yet passed

You’ll get an explanation for each answer. Signed in? Your results save to your account.

1A project has spent $200 of a $600 budget, but needs another $500 to finish. What is its forecast?
2A remaining-cost estimate changes from $120 to $150. How should the forecast use it?
3Forecast rises by $70: price effect $20 and labor effect $50. Which explanation reconciles?
0 of 3 answeredApply the lesson to a short question, then review the explanation.
4
Finish this lesson

Pass the check. We’ll save the progress.

Answer all 3 questions above and get at least 2 right. You can review the explanations and try again.

Go to the knowledge check
Optional course overview video · same video as Lesson 1
EdspiraStandard Costs and Variance AnalysisYouTube
Optional course overview

Standard Costs and Variance Analysis

From Edspira. Watch here or open it on YouTube .

Optional course overview. Follow the written steps below at your own pace.
Tools, templates, and lesson sources

Tools and templates

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Sources and further reading

Explore the references behind this lesson.

GAO Cost Estimating and Assessment Guide
Source & access notes · checked 2026-09-12

Inspected March 2020 guide overview: scope, assumptions, documentation and updating estimates with actual costs. Public federal guidance; original small-project case is not an agency procedure.

Access: Public page inspected without an account.

Reuse: Reference link only. Course prose and practice data are original; no third-party text, figures, or templates are reproduced.

NASA documenting cost-estimate results
Source & access notes · checked 2026-09-12

Inspected February 2015 Appendix H, especially basis of estimate, input assumptions, traceability and presentation of cost drivers.

Access: Public six-page agency PDF; no account.

Reuse: Reference link only. No text, charts, templates or third-party material reproduced.

NASA using performance information to adjust estimates
Source & access notes · checked 2026-09-12

Inspected February 2015 Appendix I on using performance information to update estimates.

Access: Public agency PDF; no account.

Reuse: Reference link only. Course records and arithmetic are independently authored.

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