Review: Inheritance probabilities and their limits
Use an explicit simple inheritance model to infer possibilities and assess probabilistic outcomes.
Bring the unit skills together
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Use the skills in a new task
Write an explanation for a fictional plant breeder’s paper model, using P as dominant purple and p as recessive white. An unknown purple parent crossed with pp has one correctly recorded white offspring; assume no mutation and an exact single-gene model. Infer the parent, state per-offspring probabilities, find the chance both of two independent offspring are white, and assess a separate 8-offspring sample with 6 whites.
Work on paper or in your own document. Explain the choices you made.
- Infer Pp using the white offspring and the model assumptions.
- Give 1/2 white and 1/2 purple per offspring.
- Calculate both-white probability 1/4 under independence.
- Compare expected four whites in eight with observed six without treating expectation as a guarantee.
- State that this simplified model is not a prediction tool for human traits.
Compare with a model response
The pp offspring needs p from each parent, so the unknown purple parent is Pp under the exact no-mutation model. Pp × pp gives 1/2 white and 1/2 purple per offspring. Two independent whites have probability 1/2 × 1/2 = 1/4. For eight outcomes, expected whites are four; six observed whites can occur and do not alone refute the model. This deliberately simplified plant model should not be used to predict a person’s traits.
A different response can also meet the criteria. Compare the evidence and reasoning, rather than copying the wording.