Trace climate feedback directions

Supplied materials

• All measurements and observations below are supplied classroom examples. They are not data from actual learners or a claim about a particular real site.
• Paper or a browser document for a labeled drawing, table or explanation.
• Worked problem inputs: Initial warming reduces reflective ice and increases absorbed sunlight in a model. Determine the loop’s direction.
• Assessment case 1: Initial warming decreases reflection, which raises absorption and adds warming in the model. What loop direction follows? Which inference or prediction is best supported?
• Assessment case 2: Which scientific label fits the specifically described step or feature? Supplied case: Initial warming triggers opposing cooling tendency.
• Assessment case 3: Which scientific label fits the specifically described step or feature? Supplied case: External input shifts energy balance.
• Assessment case 4: Which scientific label fits the specifically described step or feature? Supplied case: Only one link is measured.
• Assessment case 5: Which scientific label fits the specifically described step or feature? Supplied case: Change reinforces its initial direction.
• Assessment case 6: Initial warming triggers a response that reduces the original warming in the supplied loop. What follows? Which inference or prediction is best supported?

Learn the idea

A positive feedback amplifies an initial change; negative feedback opposes it. Positive does not mean good and negative does not mean bad. Direction depends on the whole causal loop.

Positive feedback means loop amplifies initial change. Negative feedback means loop reduces initial change. Forcing means external influence changes balance. Uncertain feedback means loop sign unresolved by evidence.

For the supplied mechanism problem, Initial warming reduces reflective ice and increases absorbed sunlight in a model. Determine the loop’s direction. Reduced reflection increases absorption, reinforcing the initial warming. This is positive feedback in the stated loop. Positive describes amplification, not whether an effect is desirable.

1. Read the supplied problem and mark the structures, processes or quantities named: Initial warming reduces reflective ice and increases absorbed sunlight in a model. Determine the loop’s direction.
2. Draw the relevant boundary, pathway or comparison and label it using the scientific ideas above.
3. Write a causal explanation or calculation, showing how each observation supports the result.
4. Compare your reasoning with the worked solution; name a condition that would change or limit the inference.

Check your reasoning

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Take it further

New loop: an initial temperature rise triggers a process that increases energy loss and opposes the rise. Expected: negative feedback under the stated loop, irrespective of whether the outcome is considered beneficial.

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